The futures cone turns diagnosis into navigation. It is not choosing a favourite outcome. It is showing plausible paths, the signals that distinguish them, and the constraints that become decisive under each one.
The key reframing
A nuclear pivot is not an escape from delayed transition. For a long period, it behaves like delayed transition while also creating a new Institutional constraint that does not currently exist.
The multiplier
Demand shock should not be read as a separate branch in isolation. It is better understood as a multiplier that intensifies whichever path the system is already on.
The decision logic
For close observers of the domain, the practical questions are simple: does the ESEM land on time, does large new demand materialise strongly, and does policy stability survive the next election cycle?
What this page adds
The CLD shows why the system oscillates. The constraint sequence shows what to watch. The stock-flow view shows how fast the system can move. The futures cone shows where different paths lead.